In 2009, the international media focused on an alleged program of nuclear weapons being developed by the military regime in Burma.
While some questioned the credibility of the allegation, there are also opinions which suggest that it could be true.
However, an Asia Society Task Force Report released in March this year, Current Realities & Future Possibilities in Burma/Myanmar: Options for US Policy, opines that the “rumors of nuclear weapons aspirations by SPDC remain unsubstantiated”. The prestigious Asia Society’s task force on Burma was co-chaired by US Army (Ret.) General Wesley K. Clark.
Recently, the Al Jazeera world news broadcast a four-part documentary titled ‘Myanmar’s Military Ambitions’ which showed physical structures or features inside Burma built purportedly to develop nuclear weapons.
The Al Jazeera’s four-part documentary also interviews purported military defectors from Burma who claims, with what appear to be “secret military files”, that there is indeed an intention on the part of the military regime in Burma to develop a program of nuclear weaponry.
The military regime in Burma has denied the allegation as shown in the documentary.
Malaysiakini interviewed Associated Professor Jaswant Singh Sidhu via email recently on the continuing speculation on whether there is any basis to believe that the isolated military regime in Burma is developing a nuclear program as alleged.
Jaswant Singh Sidhu, a leading expert on Burma in Malaysia, lectures on international and regional relations at the University of Malaya as well as the Malaysian Armed Forces Defence College (MAFDC).
Malaysiakini: In your assessment, how true is the allegation that Burma is secretly developing a programof nuclear weapons? What is the basis of your assessment?
Jaswant Singh Sidhu: Research on the Burmese regime’s nuclear ambitions had been going on for a couple of years now although further revelations were only made recently. Notably, two Australian academics, namely Desmond Ball and Phil Thornton, have been working on said issue over the last few years.
Nevertheless, the recent revelation of regime’s nuclear ambitions by Al Jazeera was based on an investigative report by the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), an exile-run radio station based in Oslo, which had been carrying out its own research from sources within Burma over the last few years.
This latest report not only traced Burma’s military regime’s relations with North Korea over the last few years but even provided evidence of North Korean activities in Burma. Furthermore, the report was also based on evidence provided by an officer of the Burma army who had recently defected that was further confirmed by an international arms expert.
Firstly, although Burma had severed ties with North Korea in 1983 due to the latter’s involvement in a bombing incident in Rangoon, attempts to reengage North Korea were renewed in 1992, with the main aim of procuring arms.
As a result, North Korean weapons experts began arriving in Burma, and by November 2000, a delegation from Burma was said to have visited Pyongyang. Further, in June 2001, Park Kil-yon, then North Korean vice foreign minister, was said to have led a high-level delegation to Burma, which was later, in 2003, followed by the arrival of North Korean technicians in Burma.
North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-il
It is noteworthy to mention that although Burma only resumed diplomatic relations with North Korea in 2006, numerous secret exchanges were already held prior to that. However, more importantly even when it had resumed official diplomatic relations with North Korea, most official visits are still kept a secret.
Secondly, there is also evidence pertaining to North Korean arms flowing into Burma and even its activities in the country. As for the arms procurement program from North Korea, Burma has reportedly purchased air defense radars and missile components.
The North Koreans have also been assisting the Burmese junta with the construction of extensive networks of bunkers, culverts and underground storage facilities at the country’s administrative capital in Naypyithaw, the construction of new radar and missile bases in the Shan and Kachin states and some of its technicians were even spotted at a naval facility near Rangoon, to mention just a few.
All these clearly indicate that the North Koreans have been assisting Burma in its weapons procurement program. In fact, it was based on all these activities that even the United States officials had started their own investigation into the said affair in 2003.
Sai Thein Win
Last but not least, all this evidence (including from some other Burma army defectors) was then shown to Robert Kelly, a former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) between 1993-1993 and again from 2001-2005. Kelly, a former Los Alamos scientist had also conducted both weapons inspections and compliance inspections in Libya, Iraq, South Africa, Egypt, Turkey, South Korea, Taiwan, Syria, Pakistan and India, to name a few.
Kelly was of the view that Burma was indeed developing nuclear technology because it had not only issued an order for the said programme but had even built specialised equipment and facilities for the said purpose. Nonetheless, he also concluded that it was difficult to ascertain how advanced was the country’s nuclear programme.
Based on all of the above, one can safely conclude that Burma is indeed in the process of acquiring nuclear technology for military purposes, especially by taking into consideration its military modernisation programme since 1992.
If it is true or even partially true, what are the security and strategic implications for the Southeast Asian region and other geographically close neighbours of Burma such as India, Bangladesh, Thailand and China? How to stop it?
The security and strategic implications of Burma acquiring nuclear weapons would definitely impact on the balance of power in the region, with the potential to destabilising the region in the long run. The nuclearisation of Burma could potentially bring about the further proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Southeast Asian region and thus have an adverse impact on regional stability. In other words, Burma’s acquisition of nuclear weapons could potentially trigger an arms race in the region.
Based on the recent revelations, the issue should be of serious concern to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), where some discussion on the matter should proceed soon. The UN must conduct a thorough investigation into the matter and if sufficient evidence is found then action must be taken on both countries for violation of UNSC Resolution 1874 that bans the export of all types of weapons from North Korea.
The major powers, namely the United States, must also do their part in ensuring the non-proliferation of nuclear arms into the Southeast Asian region. In doing so, both India and China must be convinced of the urgency of the matter so that both cooperate with the UN and leverage some influence on the Burmese regime to halt the programme.
Both India and China have extremely good relations with Burma. As for Asean, either based on its own investigation into the matter or after confirmation from the IAEA, this regional organization too must take a firm stand based on its Zopfan (Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality) principle.
Nonetheless, the first step ahead is to ask the IAEA to conduct a thorough investigation into matter. In doing so, the Burmese junta must cooperate if it has nothing to conceal. However, should the Burmese junta fail to cooperate, this in turn, would surely lend further credence to these allegations. In the event the Burmese junta fails to cooperate, then the UN must consider imposing sanctions on both Burma and North Korea.
Although there are currently sanctions in place against both Burma and North Korea, either unilaterally or multilaterally, the scope of these sanctions must be expanded to ensure that both the countries and especially Burma, is denied the financial means to proceed with its nuclear ambitions.
If it is not true, then why has the allegation arisen at all and also been given such serious and sustained coverage in international media such as Al Jazeera ? Given the isolated and defiant nature of the military regime in Burma, who or what authority can ultimately verify whether the allegation is true or false?
Based on the above, I am quite certain that there is much truth in these allegations. However, based on all the evidence thus far, some Burma watchers even argue that that the country is still far from having the ability to produce nuclear weapons although it has made a start in the said direction.
Nonetheless, with the Cold War over almost two decades ago, it is obvious that the country’s nuclear ambitions are aimed at regime survival or rather the perpetuation of military rule in the country.
By procuring nuclear weapons, the country’s military regime would acquire a bargaining chip when dealing with the international community. Even now it is extremely difficult to deal with Burma’s military regime when it comes to its abysmal human rights record. What more when it has acquired nuclear weapons.
Taking into account the recalcitrant and defiant nature of the regime in Burma as well as its total disregard for human rights, the international community must be firm in order to circumvent the problem before it is too late.
By James Wong Wing On
James Wong Wing On is a former member of Parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily. He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew, he and a team of journalists won the top awards of the Malaysian Press Institute (MPI) for 1998 and 1999.
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